Tigres and Pumas on the brink of missing playoffs

Tigres fell two positions in the Sportify Power Rankings in the second to last round of the Clausura after drawing at home with the Tiburones Rojos. The Apertura champions have to beat Cruz Azul, who moved up three positions in the rankings, this Saturday at Estadio Azul for the opportunity to defend the title. Tomás Boy and Cruz Azul have everything to play for as a victory would secure their place in the playoffs.

A tie between Tigres and Cruz Azul on Saturday would give Pumas hope of returning to the Liguilla. Pumas need both that draw and a win against América on Sunday. Pumas lost one position in the rankings with their 2-1 loss to Queretaro while América gained a position with a 3-3 draw against power ranking leaders Rayados.

Monarcas had the biggest climb, three positions to number seven, with a victory against Santos Laguna. Los Laguneros and Monarcas are qualified for Liguilla.

Toluca fell four places, the biggest drop of the week, with their loss to Cruz Azul. Coach Jose Cardozo will manage his last game for the Diablos Rojos in Week 17; the all-time leading goal scorer for Toluca has stepped down from his position at the club.

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Data provided by Opta

The method: The Elo rating system
Elo ratings are a calculation of performance in head-to-head competitions originally developed for chess. This method has been used to rate a variety of competitions, including soccer. For each team, the calculation considers final scores, margin of victory, home field advantage and strength of schedule.

Sportify builds on existing ELO methodology, improving the season starting rating by using a combination of a proportion of a team’s rating in the previous season and a proportion of the league’s average rating. Wins always add points and losses always deduct points. Unexpected results, such as the upset of a strong team by a lower rated team, cause a greater fluctuation in points compared to “expected” results.

In this model specific to LigaMX, better teams have scores close to 1600 while lower ranked teams have ratings in the 1400 or lower range. The model is tailored for each league, so in other competitions like the UEFA Champions Leagues, the high and low values would differ. Additional Sportify Power Ratings will be released over time.