Americas rising – the CONCACAF and CONMEBOL teams have really improved over the last 25 years going from an average power rating of 1610 to the current average of 1685. This should be one hell of a competitive tournament!
The CAC historical ratings chart below shows the highlighted average sportify power rating from 1990 to 2016 – each individual team’s rating is in the backdrop
There is some truth to Klinsmann’s comment that the Copa this year has more quality than Euro
Peak form:8 of the 16 copa teams are going in to the tournament playing their best soccer ever.
The CAC team form chart below shows the range of power ratings for each of the Copa teams over the last 25+ years – the red dot shows the 2016 rating – an indication of form relative to their range of ratings
As you’d expect, historically Argentina and Brazil have been the power houses, but a lot of historically average teams in the Americas are now playing amazing soccer – as indicated by the string of red dots along the top
Host USA needs to pull out of their recent slide – and it’s going to be a tough tournament to do that
If the shoe fits:Four teams in particular are well positioned to make a Cinderella run and take it all. Keep an eye on Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay – all four have power ratings around 1800 and have been consistently improving over the last decade.
The CAC Power Ratings by Team chart below shows the global average power rating in white with the power rating of the Cinderella teams
The US Men play their first game against Colombia, El Tri has Uruguay to start – both tough matchups to open the tournament
Stuck in third:The USMNT made great progress from 1995-2005, going from an average team (1531 power rating in 1995) to a good team (1742 in 2005). Since then they’ve struggled to just hold on to that performance tier – and are yet to break in to the elite 1800+ club. Some credit to Steve Sampson and Bruce Arena, and soul searching around what next? The USMNT Performance by Coach chart below shows the US national team’s power rating over time under different mangers
Steve Sampson took the US out of the also ran club but had a bad world cup – perhaps he deserved more time?
Bruce Arena saw the team consistently grow during his tenure – leaving behind a much changed team and higher expectations
Klinsmann has had wins, they just haven’t come when they’ve counted – major tournament performance has been average, hurting the team’s power ratings