Copa America : Notes for Monday – Where have all the goals gone?

Here are your Sportify notes for the day:
1.      There’s been a lot of talk about the dearth of goals – is it real? We took a look – it’s been the lowest goal scoring haul in the first 6 games of any recent major international tournament. The 2014 World Cup had almost 3 times as many goals after 6 games. Copa America has historically been low scoring though – 3 of the bottom 5 are Copa America tournaments:

Copa America Goals
Data provided by Opta

2.      Half of the tournament’s 8 goals came in yesterday’s late game and without the late offensive onslaught, the 2016 Copa America would be by itself at the bottom of the above graphic. El Tri got things going late on though and for the first time in this tournament, an offense looked impressive. Mexico peppered Uruguay with shots, and have 3 goals to show for it.

Mexico Offense Copa America
Data provided by Opta

This size of the circles show chance quality, colors show outcomes. Blue were on target but not goals, green are goals, red are shots off target. This is what a top team’s shot map is supposed to look like (note that Mexico’s first goal was an own goal and does not show up in the visual below).

3.      Jamaica paid for the Leicester City win – Wes Morgan’s exclusion from Jamaica’s starting XI due to lack of fitness after partying with Leicester City was not accounted for in our models. Though Captain Morgan (isn’t that a perfect name for this situation) eventually came on for the injured Kemar Lawrence, by the time he entered the fray Jamaica were down a goal and down a man.  The Jamaicans missed chances to equalize and in the end made Venezuela look better than they are, allowing them to walk away with the 3 points.

Jamaica Venezuela Scorecard Copa America 2016
Data provided by Opta

4.      So where does that leave the teams in the power rankings? Actually not a lot of turmoil relative to our starting point – Brazil were slightly hurt by the draw, and Jamaica’s loss to Venezuela hurt the Reggae Boys. Mexico played to their potential and stayed in the top 4. Today’s Argentina (sans Messi) vs. Chile will be very important.

Copa America Centenario Power Rankings
Data provided by Opta

5.      Here are your game predictions for today:

Team - Panama v Bolivia Copy
Data provided by Opta
Team - Argentina v Chile Copy
Data provided by Opta