Meanwhile, Poland has outperformed defensive expectations. The team has given up a single goal from a total of 4.25 xG conceded. The 3.25 gap is the widest in the competition, and it certainly isn’t due to luck.
The Polish defense has blocked 0.91 xG, the second best performance in the tournament. Additionally, only 33.9% of the xG conceded has made it to the goal – also the second best – but the goalkeeper has saved most of it.
If those trends continue and Robert Lewandowski, who was on fire in UCL play last season with 0.74 xG/90, remembers he’s a world-class striker, Poland vs Portugal has upset written all over it.