Upset Pick of the Week: Bournemouth vs Tottenham

It’s Friday! Which means it’s time for another upset pick in this weekend’s fixture list. Humbly, I will recount that our last pick didn’t fare so well. Stoke beat Sunderland 2-0 at home, with both goals coming from Joe Allen, who was an injury doubt at the time of writing and who we had hoped (for the sake of our pick) would miss out as he’s been Stoke’s best player this season. Alas, we’re on to the 9th matchday and a whole new pick.

 

The best storyline this coming weekend is without a doubt Jose Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge with Man United, but I don’t want to take United who are close to 3/1 underdogs, even after their thrashing of Fenerbahce in the Europa League midweek.

 

Instead, I’m going to make a case for Bournemouth to get a result at home against Tottenham. Yes, that Tottenham that still hasn’t lost a domestic game this season. Currently, Bournemouth to win or draw is listed (via oddschecker.com) at at 6/5, and I think the Cherries could get the job done and here’s a few reasons why.

 

Quite often teams freshly promoted to the Premier League rely on home form to ensure survival. Strangely enough, Bournemouth did the opposite last year, with a better points haul from their road games. This season though, Bournemouth have been great at Dean Court taking nine points from four games, and they’ve won three straight after losing the season opener to Man United. While Bournemouth have gotten results in their last three home games, their wins over West Brom and Everton weren’t the most convincing, both 1-0 wins in which their cQxG tally was ~0.5 less than their opponents, though they hammered Hull in just about every way last weekend winning 6-1.

 

Beyond just home form, the Cherries offense has been clicking of late. Junior Stanislas has scored or assisted in three straight games, Josh King and Callum Wilson have scored or assisted in the last two and those tallies would be a bit higher if they hadn’t hit the frame of the goal six times in those last three.

 

Though Harry Arter is a doubt for this one, Tottenham’s injury concerns are a bit more problematic. Harry Kane is still out with an ankle injury, and defenders Toby Alderweireld and Danny Rose are also doubts. Though Spurs haven’t lost a game with Kane out, their offense hasn’t had the same firepower, especially on the road. Before Kane went down, Spurs were averaging 2.5 goals on 1.7 cQxG in away games, that’s since dipped to 1 goal per game on 1.1 cQxG.
There’s still plenty of reasons Spurs are favored, they’re still unbeaten in domestic competition, and they put eight past Bournemouth in two games last year. Harry Kane scored five of those eight, and they could be missing half of their backline while Bournemouth have been on form and have impressed at home most of the season. All of that is why I like Bournemouth to get a result in Saturday’s early kickoff at Dean Ground.